Primary election results

The election results from yesterday's primary are in (not official final yet but the writing is on the wall).
Here's my analysis of the local races for mayor and county council.

• Incumbent Mayor Carvalho looks on track to re-election.
• Most of the incumbent county council members are leading the pack, with newcomer Arryl Kaneshiro placing an impressive third.

Overall, the prospects for any kind of change seem small to none.

Mayor

Mayor Carvalho did well against a well organized challenge from Dustin Barca (former pro surfer and mixed martial arts fighter). Clearly the incumbent mayor was expected to do well but I saw a lot more Barca signs and he made news with his run around the island. By percentage you can see (below) that The Mayor is weakest on the north shore which is where Barca's strength is. Barca's won't have a chance in the general general election unless he can compete with The Mayor in Lihue, south side, or (where I expect his best chances would be) west side.

NOTE: The precincts numbers below from Hanalei 14-01 working around the highway (clockwise) toward the west side winding up Niihau 16-06. 

	BARCA	CARVALHO
14-01	25.94%	12.63%
14-02	29.47%	14.85%
14-03	19.22%	22.80%
14-04	15.52%	25.47%
14-05	11.95%	28.04%
15-01	17.11%	24.58%
15-02	7.93%	30.92%
15-03	8.49%	34.56%
15-04	9.79%	33.71%
15-05	14.73%	26.24%
16-01	14.19%	24.16%
16-02	14.18%	29.59%
16-03	7.55%	32.44%
16-04	10.88%	35.11%
16-05	8.13%	33.04%
16-06	2.08%	40.63%

County Council

For all the talk out there about dissatisfaction with county government, I was a little surprised to see the very same names leading the pack. 

• Only Arryl Kaneshiro beat any elected incumbent. As an employee of Grove Farm, one of the biggest land holders on the island, I wonder how he will be an independent voice of the people.
• Incumbent Mason Chock, Sr. (who I think is one of our best council members) was appointed, not elected, and has the farthest to come to get re-elected.
• Kualiʻi who finished eighth (just below getting on the council) is poised in that position again.
• Police Chief Perry is also close to getting in (impressive since I can't recall seeing a Perry sign).
• Billy DeCosta ("Don't be silly, vote for Billy.") made a stronger showing than I expected.

The results are shown below (based on latest official results as of 08/10/2014 at 03:16:25 am) with candidates in the top seven (who would be elected if this were the general election) in bold, and below the cutoff (14) to get into the general election shown grayed out in italics.

Candidate	Votes
RAPOZO	9,592
KAGAWA	9,387
KANESHIRO	8,173
YUKIMURA	7,252
FURFARO	6,868
HOOSER	6,642
BYNUM	5,839
KUALIʻI	5,525
PERRY	4,902
CHOCK	4,672
BRUN	4,577
COWDEN	4,524
DeCOSTA	4,243
LARANIO	3,754
KATO-KLUTKE	3,409
KANEKOA	3,056
KAAUWAI	2,243
GEORGI	2,102
LEONG	1,816
HOROSHKO	801

Finally, I would like to thank all the candidates, including Ron Horoshko who runs Birdie's restaurant at the Kukuiolono golf course, for participating in our democracy.